Pulse of the Economy:
Consider the two following pieces of information. The first is forward looking, the second is a current perspective.
Future
Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Rise for Fourth Time in Six Months
By Shobhana Chandra
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods rose in September for the fourth time in the past six months, a sign factories are helping ring in an economic recovery.
The 1 percent increase in bookings for goods meant to last several years matched the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a 2.6 percent drop the prior month, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders climbed 0.9 percent, exceeding the survey median.
Gains in manufacturing are one reason why economists project a report tomorrow will show the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in two years. Caterpillar Inc. and Eaton Corp. are among companies saying sales will improve in coming months as more than $2 trillion in global government stimulus boosts demand from China to Europe.
Current
AAR Reports Weekly Rail Traffic Down Year Over Year
22 Oct 2009
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
For more information contact:
AAR Communications, 202-639-2100
Holly Arthur
[email protected]
Lauren Sandberg
[email protected]
AAR Reports Weekly Rail Traffic Down Year Over Year
Comparison Week in 2008 Was First Sign of Economic Slump
WASHINGTON, D.C., Oct. 22, 2009 — The Association of American Railroads today reported that rail traffic remains down year over year for the week ended Oct. 17, 2009. U.S railroads reported originating 275,545 carloads, down 15.4 percent compared with the same week in 2008. Regionally, carloads were down 14.2 percent in the West and 17 percent in the East.
It was the same week last year that notable declines in rail carloads (2.4 percent) and rail intermodal (2.8 percent) traffic showed the first significant signs of the nation’s economic downturn. Therefore, year over comparisons for weekly rail traffic may appear to improve going forward.
Following is the weekly chart that AAR creates. Check out their website it is a great place for Railroad information.
I have created the concept of the BS, MS, BS, MS indicator. In essence it reports the transportation of goods through our system. If the economy recovers we will see evidence in the rails, sea and trucking industries. The Acronym stands for Buy Sh*t, Move Sh*t, Build Sh*t, Move Sh*t (again). Note that the rail report text indicates that in comparison to last year, this weeks traffic is below that of last year. It also mentions that last years week was the very first week where traffic dropped off. They are being good stewards of the data when they suggest that trends may appear up but only because last year was so bad. Keep in mind, however, that this week is below last years level. People are unemployed, they will not be purchasing goods, the 8 cylinder consumer engine is firing on 3 cylinders, employers have further plans to cut workforce levels, credit continues to be difficult to obtain. I am glad that there is an increase in bookings. I do not believe that we are "out of the woods" or that our economy is not in significant danger.
Copyright 2009 - Jim Lindell