In spite of the good news of GDP (which is questionable), let's look at the following chart (from an excellent blog - calculatedriskblog.com):
Now consider the outlook for retail hiring as determined by a survey by AON consulting. "Lean Hiring for the Holidays by Sherry Slater" http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20091109/BIZ13/311099928/1031/BIZ
A survey by Aon Consulting found 44 percent of the leading U.S. retailers are hiring fewer seasonal workers this year than last. And 37 percent are keeping holiday hiring flat.
That leaves only 19 percent of survey participants who are increasing seasonal hiring this year. The Chicago research firm surveyed more than 100 major retailers for data in the survey that was released last month.
Based on the calculated risk blog chart, the hiring looks at best to be similar to last year. AON's perspective suggests that hiring will be below the levels of last year. This suggests that the holiday retail season, where many retailers make most of their money, will not be successful. Who knows, maybe the government can buy a new cash register for each store and claim another bazillion jobs were created "or saved".
Copyright 2009 - Jim Lindell