Everyone is eager to call this recession over. There seems to be this simple concept that if we all close our eyes and make believe that the economy is getting better then all will be fine.
I too, would like this to happen. However, there are some major problems sitting on our doorstep:
1) The automotive companies - a quick fix is impossible.
2) The automotive company suppliers - thank you sir may I have another?
3) Ballooning Government debt.
4) Pull forward demand has removed a significant amount of purchases for the next several years.
5) Housing debacle is not finished yet.
6) Consumers are tapped out (and in fiscal crisis themselves).
7) State and local governments are strapped for cash.
Unemployment U-6 (forget U-3) is heading towards 20%.
9) Social Security.
10) Health Care.
11) The cost of higher education.
12) Iraq and Afghanistan.
I like to follow 2 indicators - railroads and trucking. My reason is that to make products, we need to bring materials into our plants. To sell the products, we need to move them back out to the consumers. Hence, our recession will show signs of improvement when the railroad and trucking figures improve. Follow the AAR.ORG (American Assn of Railroads) weekly press releases as well as the monthly truck tonnage from truckline.com (American Trucking Assn). Continuous improvement will be strong indicators that we are on the right path.
Keep your attitude in check. Realism is preferable to optimism or pessimism. With a realistic assessment, you can take steps to protect your company, your employees, your family members and yourself.